¿Qué hemos aprendido del DR-CAFTA en casi una década más tarde?: Comprendiendo la realidad nicaragüense

Por Ileana Valle, Equipo de APP Nicaragua

Según el Banco Mundial, Nicaragua fue capaz de mitigar la crisis económica global en 2008. De hecho, ha tenido un crecimiento económico impresionantemente estable durante la última década. En 2012, el crecimiento del PIB de Nicaragua fue del 5,2 %, ligeramente superior al crecimiento de 5,1 % observado en 2011. ¿Podría ser esta el Tratado de Libre Comercio entre la República Dominicana, Centroamérica, y los Estados Unidos llenando sus expectativas? Este ha sido el debate.

Volvamos a 2003, cuando la retórica en torno a este polémico acuerdo se centró principalmente en cómo el TLC no sólo impulsaría la economía de Estados Unidos, sino también, sin ayuda de nadie, iba a sacar Centro América y la República Dominicana de la pobreza.

Se completó el proceso de negociación inicial con Nicaragua en un tiempo récord - un año. Esto por sí solo creo una nube dudosa sobre las verdaderas intenciones detrás del acuerdo. Dentro de este marco de tiempo, sólo unos pocos estaban realmente presentes en la mesa de negociaciones. Mario Arana, miembra de la Fundación Nicaragüense para el Desarrollo Económico y Social (Funides), y Azucena Castillo, Gerente General de la Asociación de Productores y Exportadores de Nicaragua (APEN) fueron algunos de los representantes nicaragüenses nombrado por el entonces presidente Enrique Bolaños. ¿Pero qué paso con la inclusión de los pequeños productores? Desde el principio, en el lado nicaragüense, vimos la escala desplazándose hacia las grandes empresas en lugar de todas las partes involucradas. Como hemos aprendido del TLCAN, este tipo de acuerdos unilaterales afectan negativamente a los pequeños productores cuya subsistencia depende de su pequeña producción. Ellos luchan por competir con las corporaciones agrícolas masivas de los EE.UU. que cuentan con las políticas de subsidios. Así que sin duda, este acuerdo no es muy justo dependiendo de qué lado de la dinámica de poder se encuentre.

Aunque la evidencia concreta a favor o en desacuerdo del TLC aún no se ha encontrado, me reuni con un economista nicaragüense para poner todos los factores que contribuyen a esta realidad compleja, en perspectiva.

Industria de Res

En primer lugar, la carne de res de Nicaragua es conocida por ser una carne de calidad global superior y más saludable, que su contraparte norteamericana. Además, Nicaragua es el principal exportador de carne de res a Costa Rica y El Salvador, y el número 2 detrás de los EE.UU., a Guatemala (USMEF.org 2014). Ahora pro medio del TLC, la industria de la carne estadounidense ha comenzado a importar en Nicaragua, y el resto de Centro América, a un costo significativamente más bajo - más bajo que el costo de producción de carne local en Nicaragua. Además, la gigante cadena de tiendas depredador Wal-Mart, se ha beneficiado de forma cómoda y se ha convertido en un competidor directo no sólo con su venta de carne de res estadounidense, sino también con su dominio de supermercados en Nicaragua. Así que Wal-Mart se le facilita importar carne de res a Nicaragua con cargos de impuestos mínimos a través de las mismas cuotas establecidas entre Nicaragua y los EE.UU. En otras palabras, Wal-Mart puede aprovechar el menor costo para importar carne en Nicaragua y el resto de América Central con el fin de competir con carne de producción local y a la vez, compiten directamente con los supermercados locales.

¿Qué significa todo esto? Pues bien, teniendo en cuenta que Nicaragua ha sido exitosamente el principal exportador de carne en Centro América, y ahora está siendo amenazada la economía nicaragüense en general. Más importante aún, los productores locales no pueden competir de manera realista con estas exportaciones - así que ¿en dónde se estipula en el TLC medidas de protección a los pequeños productores? Además, ¿será que la economía nicaragüense se beneficia de los incrementos de ventas de Wal-Mart? Por supuesto que no. Estos ingresos vuelven a los EE.UU.

Entonces, ¿cómo podemos explicar el crecimiento económico del que Nicaragua ha podido gozar?

Diversificación de cultivos

La comunidad agrícola ha logrado mantenerse a flote gracias a sus esfuerzos de diversificación exitosos. Agricultores nicaragüenses cambian lo que cultivan de manera que vaya cambiando la demanda internacional. Como resultado, varían sus cultivos de año en año. Además, entre las mayores exportaciones de Nicaragua está el café – debido a su manera de cambiar sus cultivos, les permitió beneficiarse considerablemente de la sequía que ocurrió en Brasil, que hizo que el precio del café se disparara. Por último, el oro es otra de las mayores exportaciones de Nicaragua; por lo que es importante mencionar que tanto el café como el oro - cuyas ventas constituyen la mayor parte del PIB de Nicaragua - son industrias no reguladas por el TLC.

Nuevos mercados

Buscando nuevos mercados es probablemente uno de los factores más importantes en la dinámica económica de Nicaragua. Nicaragua ha exitosamente podido participar en nuevas oportunidades de mercado con la Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA). ALBA es una alternativa a los acuerdos de libre comercio del norte que fue iniciado por Venezuela y Cuba - liderados por Hugo Chávez y Fidel Castro, respectivamente.

A través de este acuerdo, Nicaragua es capaz de exportar el arroz que ya no puede competir con el arroz estadounidense que entra a Nicaragua, a Venezuela. Este es uno de otros granos básicos que han comenzado a exportar a Venezuela. Estas estrategias combinadas han aliviado los efectos del TLC, y han contribuido en gran medida al crecimiento continuo. Según el economista que consultamos, las cosas se pondrían feas si ALBA dejaría de existir.

Entonces, ¿se han cumplido las expectativas de DR -CAFTA? Lejos de eso. Creo que se ha creado un espacio difícil en donde la capacidad de recuperación del pueblo de Nicaragua, ha jugado papel importante. La dependencia en la diversificación, en las industrias que no están reguladas por el TLC, y su participación en nuevas oportunidades de mercado les ha permitido no sólo sobrevivir, sino también mantener un crecimiento continuo. Así que al final, ¿quién gana con el TLC? Es evidente que son los EE.UU. y algunas grandes corporaciones privadas nicaragüenses - definitivamente no los pequeños agricultores nicaragüenses. ¿Qué hemos aprendido? Nicaragua ha tenido que ir en contra de - en lugar de trabajar en conjunto - el poder económico masivo que es los EE.UU.

What have we learned from DR-CAFTA Nearly a Decade Later: Understanding the Nicaraguan reality

By Ileana Valle, WfP Nicaragua Team

According to the World Bank, Nicaragua was able to mitigate the global economic crisis in 2008. In fact, it’s had impressively stable economic growth during the past decade. In 2012, Nicaragua’s GDP growth was 5.2%, slightly higher than the 5.1% growth seen in 2011. Could this be the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) living up to its high expectations? This has been the ongoing discussion.

Let’s go back to 2003, when the rhetoric around this controversial agreement was mainly focused on how DR-CAFTA would not only boost the United States’ economy, but also, single-handedly catapult Central America and The Dominican Republic out of poverty.

The initial negotiation process with Nicaragua was completed in record time - one year. This alone casted a dubious cloud over the actual intentions behind the agreement. Within this timeframe, only a select few were actually present at the negotiating table. Mario Arana, member of the Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development (In Spanish: Funides), and Azucena Castillo, General Manager of the Association of Producers and Exporters (In Spanish: APEN) were some of the Nicaraguan representatives present– appointed by then President Enrique Bolaños. But what about the small producers? From the very beginning, on the Nicaraguan side, we saw the scale shifting toward larger corporations instead of all parties involved. As we have learned from NAFTA, these types of unilateral agreements negatively affect small producers whose entire livelihood depends on small production. They struggle to compete with the massive agricultural corporations in the U.S. aided by subsidy policies. So arguably, this deal isn’t very fair depending which side of the power dynamic you may find yourself on.

Although concrete evidence to favor or condemn DR-CAFTA is yet to be found, I sat down with a Nicaraguan economist to put all the contributing factors of this complex reality, into perspective.

Beef Industry
First, Nicaraguan beef is known to be leaner and is a healthier, overall higher quality meat, than their North American counterpart. Further, Nicaragua is the leading beef exporter to Costa Rica, and El Salvador, and number 2 behind the U.S., to Guatemala (USMEF.org 2014). Now through DR-CAFTA, the beef industry in the U.S. is able to import into Nicaragua, and the rest of Central America, at a significantly lower cost - lower than the cost it requires for local Nicaraguans to produce their beef. Additionally, the gigantic retail predator Walmart has been conveniently benefiting and has become a direct competitor not only with their sale of U.S. beef, but also with their domination of the supermarket scene in Nicaragua. So Walmart is actually able to import beef into Nicaragua with tax breaks through the same quotas established between Nicaragua and the U.S. In other words, Walmart can take advantage of the lower cost to import beef into Nicaragua and the rest of Central America in order to compete with locally produced beef and, thus, directly competing with local supermarkets.

What does this all mean? Well, considering that Nicaragua has successfully been the leading exporter of beef in Central America, now the Nicaraguan economy as a whole is being threatened. Most importantly, local producers can’t realistically compete with these exports – so where in DR-CAFTA does it protect the livelihoods of small producers? Further, does the Nicaraguan economy relish in the increased sales of Walmart? Of course not. This revenue goes back to the U.S.

So how do we explain the economic growth that Nicaragua has still managed to experience?

Crop Diversification

The agriculture community has managed to stay afloat due to its successful diversification efforts. Nicaraguan farmers change what they grow depending on international demand. As a result, they vary what they grow from year to year. Additionally, among Nicaragua’s largest exports is coffee - so their being able to change what they grow allowed them to strongly benefit from the drought that happened in Brazil that caused the price of coffee to skyrocket. Finally, gold is another one of Nicaragua’s largest exports; so it’s worth mentioning that both coffee and gold -whose sales make up the majority of Nicaragua’s GDP - are industries not regulated by DR-CAFTA.

New Markets

Looking for new markets is probably one of the most important factors in the Nicaraguan economic dynamic. Nicaragua has been able to successfully engage in new opportunities with the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of our America (ALBA). ALBA is an alternative to the free trade agreements of the north that was started by Venezuela and Cuba - led by Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, respectively.

Through this agreement, Nicaragua is able to export the rice that can no longer compete with U.S. rice coming into Nicaragua, to Venezuela. This is among other basic grains they’ve began exporting to Venezuela. These combined strategies have alleviated the effects of DR-CAFTA, and have greatly contributed to the continued growth. According to the economist we consulted, things would get ugly if ALBA would cease to exist.

So, have the expectations of DR-CAFTA been met? Far from that. I think it’s created a difficult space where the resilience of the Nicaraguan people has played an important role. Being able to diversify, depend on industries that aren’t regulated by DR-CAFTA, and engaging in new market opportunities has allowed them to not only survive, but continue to grow. So in the end, who gains with DR-CAFTA? Clearly the U.S. and few large private Nicaraguan corporations - definitely not the Nicaraguan farmers. What have we learned? Nicaragua has had to go up against - instead of working alongside - the massive economic power that is the U.S.

Whitewashing the Coup

by Galen Cohee Baynes, Nicaragua International Team

Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo, winner of Honduras’ controversial November 29, 2009 presidential elections, was officially sworn into office yesterday morning in Tegucigalpa. Many Latin American nations continue to withhold recognition of the elections, which were held under the auspices of Roberto Micheletti’s coup regime while democratically-elected president Manuel Zelaya took haven in the Brazilian Embassy. Despite massive human rights violations on the part of the de facto government leading up to the elections – including the violent suppression of peaceful protests, the closure of independent media stations, and political assassinations – the U.S. announced that the elections were “free, fair and transparent.”

U.S. election observers pose at a party with Roberto Micheletti

In recognizing the elections the U.S. hopes to usher in a new regime that will be able to distance itself from the crisis set off in Honduras by the June 28th, 2009 military coup d’etat. However, for many Hondurans, the elections did not represent an end to the coup. They represented the beginning of a new phase of the coup in which Mr. Lobo’s government will seek legitimacy without returning the ousted leader to power or holding the coup leaders acountable for their illegal actions.

The elections were held in an atmosphere of fear, with the opposition coalition calling a "popular curfew" to boycott the elections and to keep its members safe from harm. Witness for Peace's new 10-minute video, Shot in the Back, filmed on the weekend of the elections, demonstrates some of the repressive tactics used by the Honduran police and military to suffocate popular resistance to the farcical electoral process.

After the November elections, the coup regime continued with impunity. Democratically-elected President Manuel Zelaya was never returned to the presidency, due in part to U.S. spokesperson Thomas Shannon's public guarantee that the U.S. would recognize the elections even without his reinstatement. After spending 129 days holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in the capital, Zelaya was escorted out and flown to the Dominican Republic yesterday afternoon. On Tuesday, Honduras’s Supreme Court dismissed all charges against the military leadership involved in perpetuating the coup. The commanders, including General Romeo Vasquez Velasquez – a graduate of the School of the Americas – will not face penalties for sending soldiers to kidnap and remove Zelaya from the country at gunpoint. If Latin American history tells us anything, providing amnesty to those who have committed crimes against their own peoples leaves a population deeply polarized and divided.

In addition, fears abound that Mr. Lobo’s presidency will continue the coup regime’s policies. The economic agenda he sets is particularly crucial. Economics was, of course, one of the main reasons that Manuel Zelaya was ousted from power. Honduras’s recent experience with neoliberalism has been to promote an export sector based the low wages that can be paid to workers in one of the hemisphere’s most impoverished countries. Mr. Zelaya’s decision in 2009 to raise the minimum wage by approximately 60% terrified the owners of textile factories (maquilas). This policy, along with the expansion of relationships with the Latin American countries involved in ALBA (The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas) and the introduction of Venezuelan oil to Honduras through the Petrocaribe program, triggered the animosity of the Honduran elite and the U.S. interests that back them. Zelaya's attempt to hold a referendum on convening an assembly to draw up a new, more inclusive and democratic constitution, led the entrenched powers to overthrow Zelaya. With that clear warning, we can expect Mr. Lobo to move away from any attempts to diversify the Honduran economy through relationships with the ALBA countries, fight to keep the minimum wage low, and ignore the growing popular call for a new constitution.

Most disturbingly, attacks and threats against opposition voices have increased since the November 29 elections. Members of the LGBT community that have protested against the coup government have been especially targeted for attacks. Respected international human rights monitoring groups have been tracking human rights abuses on the part of Honduran security forces since the coup. Be sure to see the scathing report of the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and read what Amnesty International has to say about restoring human rights in Honduras post-coup. The tireless Honduran human rights organizations COFADEH and CODEH continue to receive and document reports of human rights violations.

Just last week lawyer Nectali Rodezno, who has headed the Lawyers' Front Against the Coup, contacted Witness for Peace to report death threats against his wife and young child. On January 18 unidentified callers told his family that that they would be killed if Mr. Rodezno does not stop “becoming involved with the power structures.”

Honduran activist and leader Nectali Rodezno

So, while the United States aligns itself with Mr. Lobo’s government and speaks of the elections as the “way forward,” many Hondurans that have suffered at the hands of the coup regime will not be content with this proffered solution. The social movements that have coalesced in opposition to the coup, including the National Front of Resistance to the Coup, will continue to struggle for an open, democratic system of government. And those who have been attacked or lost family members to violence on the part of the state will not cease in their search for justice. Concerned citizens of the United States must continue to work in solidarity with the people of Honduras as the country enters into a new phase of its history.

As this cycle of violence completes a military coup to protect the economic status quo we must continue to raise awareness about what is happening in Honduras. Write letters to the editor and op-eds when Honduras is mentioned in your local papers. Forward the Shot in the Back video to friends and family. See the reality for yourself on a Witness for Peace delegation to Honduras. Don’t let the world forget!